Real-Time Forecast of Reservoir Inflow Hydrographs Incorporating Terrain and Monsoon Effects during Typhoon Invasion by Novel Intelligent Numerical-Statistic Impulse Techniques

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AbstractThis study develops an original methodology for forecasting real-time reservoir inflow hydrographs during typhoons, taking advantage of meteoro-hydrological methods such as analysis of typhoon hydrographs, numerical typhoon track forecasts, statistic typhoon central impulse-based quantitative precipitation forecasts model based on a real-time revised approach (TCI-RTQPF), real-time recurrent learning neural network (RTRLNN), and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). To derive the inflow hydrograph induced by interaction between typhoon rain bands, terrain, and monsoons, the inventive novel ensemble numerical-statistic impulse techniques are employed. The inflow during peak flow, inflection, and direct runoff ending (DRE) periods (impulse signal) are used for the deriving process. The hydrograph analysis is used to examine the mechanism between typhoon center location, wind field, precipitation, and the inflow hydrograph, and to establish the evaluation methods. Additionally, a nov...