Real-Time Construction Schedule Analysis of Long-Distance Diversion Tunnels Based on Lithological Predictions Using a Markov Process

Abstract

AbstractSchedules are major concerns in construction planning and management. The mutual interferences among construction activities of long-distance diversion tunnels (LDDTs) are complicated because of their crisscrossing and intensive layout, which will affect scheduling to some degree. Especially, lithology has a conclusive influence on underground construction. But the lithology determination methods of current construction simulation, such as the trend of extrapolation from observations, do not fully consider lithology’s inherent characteristics and the transition probability between different lithological classifications. In the present study, the authors propose a hierarchical simulation model coupling the critical path method (CPM) and cycle operation network (CYCLONE) to arrange the intricate construction sequence of LDDTs. Additionally, a Markov prediction model is embedded into the CYCLONE model as a specific component to consider lithological uncertainty and estimate construction parameters of...