Real Time and Automatic Analysis Program for WASAVIES: Warning System for Aviation Exposure to Solar Energetic Particles

Abstract

AbstractA physics‐based warning system for aviation exposure to solar energetic particles, WASAVIES, is improved to be capable of real‐time and automatic analysis. In the improved system, the count rates of several neutron monitors at the ground level, as well as the proton fluxes measured by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), are continuously downloaded at intervals of 5 min and used for checking the occurrence of ground level enhancement (GLE). When a GLE event is detected, the system automatically determines the model parameters for characterizing the profiles of each GLE event and nowcasts and forecasts the radiation dose rates all over the world up to 24 hr after the flare onset. The performance of WASAVIES is examined by analyzing the four major GLE events of the 21st century. The accuracy of the nowcast data obtained by the model is well validated by the reproducibility of the current neutron monitor count rates and GOES proton fluxes as well as the flight‐dose measurements. On the other hand, the forecast data are reliable only when the evaluated parameters are stable, as expected in the model. A Web interface of WASAVIES is also developed and will be released in the near future through the public server of National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT).