RCEP and China: An Application of GE-PPML Model to Goods, Services, and Value Chains

Abstract

This study utilizes a flexible estimation and simulation platform based on the GE-PPML model to analyze the trade and welfare implications of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) for member countries, with a particular focus on China. Our findings suggest that RCEP has the potential to yield significant export gains for member economies. Furthermore, by considering heterogeneity in terms of sectors and product usage, our results indicate that RCEP holds significant potential for deepening value chain trade among member countries, particularly in the manufacturing industry. This study underscores the importance and uniqueness of examining the actual impact of RCEP on member countries’ trade and welfare. By providing clearer insights into these impacts, we aim to contribute to a better understanding of the potential benefits and challenges associated with RCEP implementation.