Abstract
The object of research is the management of the sea port infrastructure during the ice navigation period. One of the most problematic issues is the rationalization and effectiveness of ice posting. Based on statistical data, a significant decrease in cargo turnover in the ports of the Sea of Azov (Mariupol and Berdiansk (Ukraine)) is observed throughout the ice period. A study is conducted of the need to use analysis and forecasting of seasonal processes in the management of the production activities of seaports, using statistical data, to determine the dynamics of the turnover of seaports during the ice period. On the basis of statistical data analysis, the concept of ice formation seasonality in the Sea of Azov is formulated. In the process of research is given the definition of the concept of seasonality factor as a category, expressed in the form of oscillatory processes. And also an approach to the formation of an information base is developed that takes into account various forms of the port's production activities in ice conditions that meet the requirements of continuous planning and regulation of the port. A verbal algorithm for predicting the state of ice cover for the formation of convoys for the purpose of statistical forecasting, including all stages of processing time series, is proposed and developed. As a result, a significant decrease in the port turnover during the ice period is proved and ways to increase the capacity of waterways during the ice period are proposed. According to the authors, with the help of the seasonality factor and ice formation prediction based on the verbal algorithm, it is possible to reduce the costs of using an icebreaker during ice navigation. It is assumed that the decrease of icebreaker’s voyages can be reduced from 10–15 to 4–5, which in turn will significantly reduce the port costs for the maintenance of the icebreaker and increase the performance of the ports during ice navigation.
Highlights
The management, organization and planning of yearround sea transportation largely depends on the influence of external factors, in particular on the conditions of the winter period of navigation
During the ice period, the global cargo traffic decreases by more than 5 times compared with the summer-autumn navigation period, which negatively affects the performance of the ports
Studies of navigation conditions during the ice season show that methods and calculations that take into account both the natural and production aspects of the transport process, which have a significant impact on the management and planning of port operations, are relevant
Summary
The management, organization and planning of yearround sea transportation largely depends on the influence of external factors, in particular on the conditions of the winter period of navigation. The wiring of ships along main canals in ice conditions is characterized by the limited width of the free passage of a convoy of ships, and by the high level of environmental and environmental variabi lity. In such difficult conditions, the process of managing shipping is complicated by the application of the relevant regulatory documents on ship escort modes and requires prompt response to external factors. Studies of navigation conditions during the ice season show that methods and calculations that take into account both the natural and production aspects of the transport process, which have a significant impact on the management and planning of port operations, are relevant
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