Rational Choice, Voting Pattern and Presidential Elections in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic

Abstract

Arguably, party identification model, rational choice model, dominant ideological model are some of the prominent models shaping discussions on voting patterns and behaviour of the electorates. This paper relied on the rational choice model and drew on Presidential elections in Nigeria’s fourth republic to show how important this study is, its implications on sovereignty of the citizens, and the legitimacy of the emerged leaders whether it is based on the evaluative or non-evaluative factors. This study adopted a descriptive survey research design using both quantitative and qualitative methods. The population of the study was 9,018,287 registered voters in Anambra and Lagos States. The sample size was 400 and this was determined by using Taro Yamane formula. Instrument for data collection was validated questionnaire and interview guide. Quantitative data was analysed with the use of descriptive and inferential statistics, while qualitative data were content analysed. The paper concluded that money politics, Ethnicity and religious sentiment served as the determinant of the voting behaviour and choices of Nigerian voters during the presidential election of the fourth republic and this has tremendous implications on citizen’s sovereignty and the legitimacy of any emerged government. The study recommended that there is serious need for the strengthening and building of strong political institutions in the country. Also, there is need for collaboration by both INEC and the Civil Society groups to engage in the political education and re-orientation of both the politicians, voters and all the concerned stakeholders in the electoral processes of the country. Keywords: Rational Choice, Presidential Election, Voters, Fourth Republic and Voting Behaviour.