Rapid Rhythm and Overambitious Objectives: The Dual Mismatch in Japan's Rising Process

Abstract

On August 15, 1945, Japanese Foreign Minister Mamoru Shigemitsu signed the instrument of surrender, marking Japan's formal capitulation to the Allied forces. This surrender signaled the defeat of the Axis powers and effectively halted Japan's rising trajectory. Grounded in positional realism and the theory of strategic rhythm, this paper introduces a novel analytical framework to examine the discrepancies between strategic objectives and rhythm in Japan's rising process. Subsequently, the paper chronologically reviews Japan's historical ascent, utilizing this analytical lens to assess the alignment between Japan's early, middle, and late-stage strategic objectives with its comprehensive capabilities, as well as the congruence between objectives and strategic rhythm. The analysis suggests that Japan initially maintained a strategic equilibrium with appropriate objectives and rhythm. However, discrepancies emerged in the middle period between strategic objectives and rhythm, escalating to a misalignment between objectives and comprehensive capabilities in the later stages. This confluence of misalignments culminated in a "dual mismatch," ultimately interrupting Japan's rise.