Rapid increase of the nighttime electricity demand in Beijing due to compound heatwaves

Abstract

Under the carbon-neutral development pathway in China, >96% of the total power generation will be provided by clean energy sources by 2060. However, since solar power generation is unavailable at night, it is crucial to investigate the changes in nighttime electricity demand in response to increasing occurrences of tropical nights. This study reveals that nighttime electricity consumption is more sensitive to temperature changes compared to daytime consumption, which has already been extensively studied. The correlation coefficient between nighttime consumption and daily minimum temperature (Tmin) is found to be 0.7. Furthermore, the elasticity of nighttime electricity consumption increases even more when Tmin exceeds 24 °C. The combined effects of heatwaves occurring during both daytime and nighttime can further increase electricity consumption by 40%. By utilizing a high-resolution hybrid downscaling climate projection dataset, we estimate the electricity consumption at the end of the 21st century. The frequency of compound daytime/nighttime heat extremes is projected to increase to 4.2 times the current level under RCP4.5. Consequently, the frequency of large nighttime electricity consumption over 6 kWh per capita will rise by 109%. Our quantitative analysis sheds light on the necessity of energy storage planning to ensure energy security under climate change.