Abstract
Efficient environmental policies are necessary in the improvement of air quality and reduction in carbon emissions, and the interactions between policy, activity, emissions, and environment comprise a cycle allowing the evaluation of the effects of implemented policies. Based on the establishment of the connection between environmental parameters and policy context using a quantifiable methodology, in this study, we formulated a rapid and simplified pattern for the evaluation of the effects of policies concerning the atmospheric environment, and applied it to the evaluation and improvement of policies for Carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction and air quality enhancement in the sample city of Shenzhen. The Response Surface Model-Visualization and Analysis Tool (RSM-VAT) in the Air Benefit and Cost and Attainment Assessment System (ABaCAS) was applied as the core tool. The required reductions in Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions for 2014–2019 are expected to be achieved; however, the expected reductions in Nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions (mainly from road mobile sources) and Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions (mainly from secondary industry and road mobile sources) are less certain. According to the simulated concentration of PM2.5 in 2019, it is necessary to reduce the concentrations of air pollutants, both within and outside Shenzhen. The background weather conditions may be the main reason for the increased concentrations of Ozone (O3) in October compared to those in July. Reductions in NOx and VOCs tend to be the main factors driving changes in O3 concentrations. Policies have been formulated and implemented in a wide array of areas. According to the quantitative comparative analysis of the policies, and the relevant activities, the greatest challenge in reducing NOx and VOCs emissions is presented by the oil-powered vehicles in the road mobile sector and organic solvent production in the secondary industry sector. Therefore, in an effort to achieve better air quality and ensure that CO2 emissions reach a peak in Shenzhen by 2025, we propose key improvements in policies based on interdisciplinary cooperation, involving not only atmospheric and environmental science, but also governance and urban planning.
Highlights
Introduction distributed under the terms andSince the Industrial Revolution, the high-intensity consumption and utilization of fossil fuels has supported rapid economic growth in various fields and improved the comfort and convenience of people’s lives
Nitrogen oxides (NOx) and Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were significantly higher than those of the other three air pollutants. This suggests that the influence of NOx and VOCs on the air quality is higher than that of other pollutants with similar reduction ratios in each scenario
It can be further asserted that the emissions of SO2 and PM2.5 in Shenzhen have been greatly reduced in reality, but emissions of NOx and VOCs remain high, posing a significant problem in the prevention and control of O3 pollution
Summary
Since the Industrial Revolution, the high-intensity consumption and utilization of fossil fuels has supported rapid economic growth in various fields and improved the comfort and convenience of people’s lives. This has been accompanied by air pollution and climate change, along with the consequent introduction of public health risks [1,2]. Since the announcement in 2020 that “China aims to have Carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060” [7], Chinese cities have been carrying out in-depth changes to their energy structure and industrial structure, while simultaneously solving multiple environmental problems with intensive management and control schemes, i.e., improvement in air quality and reductions in carbon emissions are being promoted together. There are economic effects associated with these environmental issues; the objects of the present study are limited to the environmental policy effects corresponding to the reduction in the (concentrations of) specific physical substances in the atmosphere
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