Exploring potential impacts from transitions in German and European energy on GHG and air pollutant emissions and on ozone air quality

Abstract

Energy is at the heart of the climate crisis—but also at the heart of any efforts for climate change mitigation. Energy consumption is namely responsible for approximately three quarters of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, central to any serious plans to stave off a climate catastrophe is a major transformation of the world's energy system, which would move society away from fossil fuels and towards a net-zero energy future. Considering that fossil fuels are also a major source of air pollutant emissions, the energy transition has important implications for air quality as well, and thus also for human and environmental health. Both Europe and Germany have set the goal of becoming GHG neutral by 2050, and moreover have demonstrated their deep commitment to a comprehensive energy transition. Two of the most significant developments in energy policy over the past decade have been the interest in expansion of shale gas and hydrogen, which accordingly have garnered great interest and debate among public, private and political actors. In this context, sound scientific information can play an important role by informing stakeholder dialogue and future research investments, and by supporting evidence-based decision-making. This thesis examines anticipated environmental impacts from possible, relevant changes in the European energy system, in order to impart valuable insight and fill critical gaps in knowledge. Specifically, it investigates possible future shale gas development in Germany and the United Kingdom (UK), as well as a hypothetical, complete transition to hydrogen mobility in Germany. Moreover, it assesses the impacts on GHG and air pollutant emissions, and on tropospheric ozone (O3) air quality. The analysis is facilitated by constructing emission scenarios and performing air quality modeling via the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem). The work of this thesis is presented in three research papers. The first paper finds that methane (CH4) leakage rates from upstream shale gas development in Germany and the UK would range between 0.35% and 1.36% in a realistic, business-as-usual case, while they would be significantly lower - between 0.08% and 0.15% - in an optimistic, strict regulation and high compliance case, thus demonstrating the value and potential of measures to substantially reduce emissions. Yet, while the optimistic case is technically feasible, it is unlikely that the practices and technologies assumed would be applied and accomplished on a systematic, regular basis, owing to economics and limited monitoring resources. The realistic CH4 leakage rates estimated in this study are comparable to values reported by studies carried out in the US and elsewhere. In contrast, the optimistic rates are similar to official CH4 leakage data from upstream gas production in Germany and in the UK. Considering that there is a lack of systematic, transparent and independent reports supporting the official values, this study further highlights the need for more research efforts in this direction. Compared with national energy sector emissions, this study suggests that shale gas emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) could be significant, though relatively insignificant for other air pollutants. Similar to CH4, measures could be effective for reducing VOCs emissions. The second paper shows that VOC and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions from a future shale gas industry in Germany and the UK have potentially harmful consequences for European O3 air quality on both the local and regional scale. The results indicate a peak increase in maximum daily 8-hour average O3 (MDA8) ranging from 3.7 µg m-3 to 28.3 µg m-3. Findings suggest that shale gas activities could result in additional exceedances of MDA8 at a substantial percentage of regulatory measurement stations both locally and in neighboring and distant countries, with up to circa one third of stations in the UK and one fifth of stations in Germany experiencing additional exceedances. Moreover, the results reveal that the shale gas impact on the cumulative health-related metric SOMO35 (annual Sum of Ozone Means Over 35 ppb) could be substantial, with a maximum increase of circa 28%. Overall, the findings suggest that shale gas VOC emissions could play a critical role in O3 enhancement, while NOx emissions would contribute to a lesser extent. Thus, the results indicate that stringent regulation of VOC emissions would be important in the event of future European shale gas development to minimize deleterious health outcomes. The third paper demonstrates that a hypothetical, complete transition of the German vehicle fleet to hydrogen fuel cell technology could contribute substantially to Germany's climate and air quality goals. The results indicate that if the hydrogen were to be produced via renewable-powered water electrolysis (green hydrogen), German carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq) emissions would decrease by 179 MtCO2eq annually, though if electrolysis were powered by the current electricity mix, emissions would instead increase by 95 MtCO2eq annually. The findings generally reveal a notable anticipated decrease in German energy emissions of regulated air pollutants. The results suggest that vehicular hydrogen demand is 1000 PJ annually, which would require between 446 TWh and 525 TWh for electrolysis, hydrogen transport and storage. When only the heavy duty vehicle segment (HDVs) is shifted to green hydrogen, the results of this thesis show that vehicular hydrogen demand drops to 371 PJ, while a deep emissions cut is still realized (-57 MtCO2eq), suggesting that HDVs are a low-hanging fruit for contributing to decarbonization of the German road transport sector with hydrogen energy.