Abstract
The climate change especially the changes in rainfall pattern is most crucial for Himalayan region as it leads to changes in river runoff and consequently affecting environment, agricultural productivity and human livelihood downstream. Current study aims to evaluate the rainfall trend and variability in the highest rainfall recipient sub-tropical hill regions of Arunachal Pradesh in Northeastern Himalayan region of India. Sen’s estimator is used for trend analysis and Mann-Kendall test to determine significance of the trend. The 37 years (1979-2015) data reveals no clear and consistent trend of average annual rainfall. But a wide inter and intra seasonal variation in the monthly rainfall has been observed. Also a significant shift in rainfall during pre-monsoon and Southwest monsoon was noticed leading to change in forest and agricultural growing seasons, mid-season dry spell during July and increase in extreme rainfall events during August, September and October. The trend analysis of rainfall will help in prediction of future climate scenarios in this Himalayan region and to understand the impact of climate change.
Highlights
Current human induced climate change is unprecedented in the history of earth and its impacts are very real though with spatially varied intensity, that is supported and confirmed by consistent rise in average air and ocean temperatures, decrease in glacier levels and rise in sea level[1]
Especially change in hydrological cycle due to change in rainfall patterns leading to changes in river runoff and affecting whole ecosystems downstream including
Study Site The study is concentrated at Basar located in the Sub-tropical Hill zone of Arunachal Pradesh in Northeastern Himalayan region of India stretching between N27o59.53' and E94o41.27'
Summary
Current human induced climate change is unprecedented in the history of earth and its impacts are very real though with spatially varied intensity, that is supported and confirmed by consistent rise in average air and ocean temperatures, decrease in glacier levels and rise in sea level[1]. The impact of climate change is believed to be more prominent and extensive especially on the Himalayan Mountains as they are among the most fragile environments/ ecosystems on the Earth[2]. The Northeastern Himalayan region comes under Indo-Myanmar Maga-Biodiversity Zone sustaining huge repository of biodiversity and water and provide ecosystem services to the communities downstream[3,4,5]. Mountain ecosystems are likely to experience wide ranging effects on the environment, biodiversity, agriculture and socioeconomic conditions under the influence of climate change[8]. Especially change in hydrological cycle due to change in rainfall patterns leading to changes in river runoff and affecting whole ecosystems downstream including
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