Abstract
Climate change is a multidimensional phenomenon, which has various effects on people's environmental and socioeconomic conditions. In the agricultural economy that is susceptible to natural changes, its impact is more profound. Therefore, climate change directly affects society in different ways, and society must pay a price. Climate change, especially the changes in annual temperature and rainfall, has attracted widespread attention worldwide. The variability of these factors or the magnitude of fluctuations varies according to location. Therefore, in the context of climate change, especially in countries dominated by rainfed agriculture, studying the trend of meteorological variables is essential to assess climate-induced variations and propose feasible adaptation approaches. Focusing on this fact is the main goal of this research study was to determine the rainfall trend and the accuracy of predicted temperature at three particular stations of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Kp) Province, Pakistan. For this purpose, rainfall and temperature data were provided by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Islamabad, for the period 1960–2020. Two types of nonparametric techniques, Sen’s slope estimate and the Mann–Kendall test, were applied to determine a trend in the average monthly and annual rainfall. The results of the annual rainfall trend analysis showed that Peshawar and Dera Ismail Khan stations showed a positive increasing trend, while the monthly rainfall trend showed a negative decreasing trend for all stations. The trend was statistically significant for Peshawar and Saidu Sharif stations. The accuracy of predicted and actual temperature and rainfall indicated that mostly over-forecast occurred at Saidu Sharif and Peshawar. Most of the precipitation and temperature records showed under forecast for Dera Ismail Khan, but some over-prediction has also occurred.Graphical abstract
Highlights
As the mother of major external factors, climate change has led to extreme weather events such as temperature fluctuations, humidity changes, and heavy rainfall, resulting in huge economic losses [33]
The existing work was done in three parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Kp), Pakistan (Dera Ismail Khan, Saidu Sharif, and Peshawar) to examine rainfall trends and explore the weather forecast accuracy
A summary of trend analysis is shown in Tables 4, 5, 6 and Figs. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 for three stations, Peshawar, Dera Ismail Khan, and Saidu Sharif
Summary
As the mother of major external factors, climate change has led to extreme weather events such as temperature fluctuations, humidity changes, and heavy rainfall, resulting in huge economic losses [33]. Thorough information on the spatiotemporal changes in rainfall characteristics is needed to calculate possible fluctuations in the hydrological structure [7]. Climate change is one of the main concerns of modern humans in the twenty-first century. It affects precipitation and other important characteristics, such as precipitation intensity, the length of the rainy season, the actual dates of rainfalls, and trends in a given season. According to the previous research, it has been determined that more and more extreme events of weather exist worldwide, and the proposed trend has continued in current years ([11, 29, 31, 34], Reason 2017)
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