Abstract
Runoff simulation is a complex problem in mountain catchments due to high rainfall variability and rugged topography. In the lower parts of Nepal, river flooding is a serious disaster problem in July and August; sometimes it also occurs in September. In this context, Hydro-Informatic Modeling System (HIMS) was used for daily and monthly runoff simulation from the set of daily hydro-meteorological data (Maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, and discharge) in the time series 1980 to 1989, 1990 to 1999, and 2000 to 2009, respectively. The model performed well for the monthly runoff simulation, whereas the efficiency coefficient and relative coefficient both were found a very good correlation between observed and simulated hydrographs, which varied between 0.883 to 0.940 and 0.889 to 0.945, respectively. However, the efficiency coefficient and relative coefficient both were found a very poor correlation between observed and simulated hydrographs for the daily runoff simulation, which averaged 0.342 and 0.348, respectively. The daily simulation result also might have been improved, if more number of uniformly distributed meteorological station data is available.
Highlights
Water resource management is essential for the sustainable development of the society under climate change, especially in densely populated and flood-sensitive areas
Uncertainties still exist in hydrological modeling results that can be mainly categorized into 3 sources: uncertainty in model structure, uncertainty in model inputs, and uncertainty in model parameter values (Wagener and Gupta 2005)
Hydro-Informatic Modeling System (HIMS) has been already used in the case studies of the Yellow River Basin in China and Murray Darling Basin in Australia, and the results showed that HIMS was able to simulate runoff well for these selected catchments (Liu et al, 2008)
Summary
Water resource management is essential for the sustainable development of the society under climate change, especially in densely populated and flood-sensitive areas. The hydrological model serves as a valuable tool in water resource management at the catchment scale, and its ultimate goal is to estimate the runoff from a catchment corresponding to rainfall and route the runoff downstream through a river network (Bhadra et al 2010). Both stochastic and process-based hydrological models can be utilized for runoff simulation. Over the past several decades, process-based hydrological modeling has made a great success and a series of lumped, semi-distributed, and fully distributed processbased hydrological models have been developed and applied in water resource management. The complexity of the model varies according to the scale of operation, required accuracy, computer facilities, and type of hydrologic quantity to be modeled (Abulohom et al 2001)
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