Rainfall and Temperature Trend Analysis by Mann–Kendall Test and Significance for Rainfed Cereal Yields in Northern Togo

Agossou Gadedjisso-Tossou,Armand Ketcha Malan Kablan,Komlavi Ii Adjegan

doi:10.3390/sci2040074

Abstract

This study investigates the trend in monthly and annual rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature (Tmin and Tmax) using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope (SS) method and evaluates the significance of their variability for maize, sorghum and millet yields in northern Togo employing multiple regression analysis. The historical data of Kara, Niamtougou, Mango and Dapaong weather stations from 1977 to 2012 were used. Four non-parametric methods—Alexandersson’s Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), Buishand’s Range Test (BRT), Pettitt’s Test (PT) and Von Neumann’s Ratio Test (VNRT)—were applied to detect homogeneity in the data. For the data which were serially correlated, a modified version of the MK test (pre-whitening) was utilised. Results showed an increasing trend in the annual rainfall in all four locations. However, this trend was only significant at Dapaong (p < 0.1). There was an increasing trend in Tmax at Kara, Mango and Niamtougou, unlike Dapaong where Tmax revealed a significant decreasing trend (p < 0.01). Similarly, there was an increasing trend in Tmin at Kara, Mango and Dapaong, unlike Niamtougou where Tmin showed a non-significant decreasing trend (p > 0.05). Rainfall in Dapaong was found to have increased (7.79 mm/year) more than the other locations such as Kara (2.20 mm/year), Niamtougou (4.57 mm/year) and Mango (0.67 mm). Tmax increased by 0.13, 0.13 and 0.32 °C per decade at Kara, Niamtougou and Mango, respectively, and decreased by 0.20 per decade in Dapaong. Likewise, Tmin increased by 0.07, 0.20 and 0.02 °C per decade at Kara, Mango and Dapaong, respectively, and decreased by 0.01 °C per decade at Niamtougou. Results of multiple regression analysis revealed nonlinear yield responses to changes in rainfall and temperature. Rainfall and temperature variability affects rainfed cereal crops production, but the effects vary across crops. The temperature has a positive effect on maize yield in Kara, Niamtougou and Mango but a negative effect on sorghum in Niamtougou and millet in Dapaong, while rainfall has a negative effect on maize yield in Niamtougou and Dapaong and millet yield in Mango. In all locations, rainfall and temperature variability has a significant effect on the cereal crop yields. There is, therefore, a need to adopt some adaptation strategies for sustainable agricultural production in northern Togo.

Highlights

Introduction conditions of the Creative CommonsClimate change alters rainfall patterns and increases the occurrence of extreme events such as droughts and floods [1]
Rainfall and temperature variability has a significant effect on the cereal crop yields
The homogeneity tests were performed on the time series of annual rainfall and maximum and minimum temperature (Table 2)

Summary

Introduction

Climate change alters rainfall patterns and increases the occurrence of extreme events such as droughts and floods [1]. West Africa’s countries, agriculture contributes more to reducing poverty than other sectors do [4]. This remains true because agriculture still constitutes the backbone of most West. Like other countries of the West Africa region, Togo is currently experiencing climate disruption [5]. This is characterised by irregularity in onset as well as overall shortening of the rainy season, delay of the arrival of potentially useful rains, poor distribution of rainfall over the year, high temperatures, drought spells and floods [6]. McSweeney et al [8] observed an increase of 1.1 ◦ C in the mean annual temperature since

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