Recent rainfall trend over Sri Lanka (1987–2017)

Abstract

AbstractRainfall trend analysis provides useful information for effective planning, and management of water resources, and gives an insight into climate change of a region. This study investigates trends in annual and seasonal rainfall over Sri Lanka using an Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Mann–Kendall (MK) test with Sen's slope estimator. The MK test showed increasing trends in annual rainfall at 24 stations (65%) with five stations showing significant increasing trend. Annual rainfall at 13 locations (35%) showed decreasing trend, but none were significant (p < .05). ITA results for annual rainfall showed increasing trend at 67% stations while 33% stations showed decreasing trend. MK test results for seasonal rainfall indicated increasing trend at 76, 51, 32, and 86% of stations during First Inter‐Monsoon (FIM), Second Inter‐Monsoon (SIM), South West Monsoon (SWM), and North East Monsoon (NEM) seasons, respectively. Seasonal analysis of rainfall trend using ITA method showed increasing trend in 81, 70, 32, and 65% stations during FIM, SIM, SWM, and NEM, respectively. ITA and MK tests exhibited similar trend results for 80% of the stations. Moreover, Spearman's rho correlation coefficient between ITA and MK test trends showed significant (p < .05) positive correlation. In general, eastern, south eastern, north and north central regions of the country showed increasing rainfall trend over the last 31 years (1987–2017) while western, part of north western and central part of the country indicated a decreasing rainfall trend during the same period.