Abstract
ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the heavy rainfall on 16–20 May 2021 across southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana. In Louisiana, five fatalities were attributed to the event and > $1 billion in losses. The rainfall was caused by two slow-moving, mesoscale convective vortices that concentrated precipitation south of Port Arthur, TX, Lake Charles, LA, and Baton Rouge, LA, in 6 to 12-hour periods. Using calibrated radar data, the Storm Precipitation Analysis System estimated 6-h rainfall totals of 254–362 mm south of Lake Charles, surpassing 200–500-year average recurrence intervals (ARI) for those locations, with an isolated area receiving 367.5 mm, equating to a > 800-year ARI. In East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, 203–268 mm was estimated in 6-h (200–500-year ARI), with an isolated area receiving 274 mm, equivalent to a 750-year ARI. A comparison of the May 2021 and August 2016 events, which both affected southern Louisiana, is made using a depth-area-duration analysis. While the forcing mechanisms differed, 1–6 h rainfall depths were similar at 1 –25,900 km2. The May 2021 event exceeded rainfall depths produced by the August 2016 event for 2–6 h durations for area sizes of 1–388 km2, highlighting the precipitation intensity produced by the May 2021 event.
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