Rail Degradation Prediction Models for Tram System: Melbourne Case Study

Amir Falamarzi,Sara Moridpour,Reyhaneh Hesami,Majidreza Nazem

doi:10.1155/2018/6340504

Abstract

Tram is classified as a light rail mode of transportation. Tram tracks experience high acceleration and deceleration forces of locomotives and wagons within their service life and also share their route with other vehicles. This results in higher rates of degradation in tram tracks compared to the degradation rate in heavy rail tracks. In this research, gauge deviation is employed as a representative of track geometry irregularities for the predication of the tram track degradation. Data sets used in this research were sourced from Melbourne’s tram system. For model development, the data of approximately 250 km of tram tracks are used. Two different models including a regression model and an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) model have been applied for predicting tram track gauge deviation. According to the results, the performances of the regression models are similar to the ANN models. The determination coefficients of the developed models are above 0.7.

Highlights

Nowadays, tram system as an energy-efficient mode of public transit is developed and used in different places to facilitate the movement of people within suburbs, cities, and even countries [1, 2]
Four linear multiple regression models which have provided acceptable results in terms of R2 and mean-squared error (MSE) in prediction of track gauge (Gt) for repaired segments and unrepaired segments are selected and the results of the regression analysis are represented in Tables 2 and 3
Previous gauge deviation with positive coefficient has a clear correlation with current gauge deviation

Summary

Introduction

Tram system as an energy-efficient mode of public transit is developed and used in different places to facilitate the movement of people within suburbs, cities, and even countries [1, 2]. In railway infrastructure, the rate of degradation is not quick. This process can lead to system failure with great human casualties and significant financial loss if necessary maintenance actions are not considered [6, 7]. To keep the tram services reliable and comfortable, implementing efficient maintenance strategies is necessary [8]. In this context, in Australia, Public Transport Victoria (PTV) spent more than 63 million AUD between 2014 and 2015 for the maintenance and renewal activities of tram networks [9]

Objectives

Results

Conclusion