Abstract
As an essential measure to mitigate the CO2 emissions, China is constructing a nationwide carbon emission trading (CET) market. The electric power industry is the first sector that will be introduced into this market, but the quota allocation scheme, as the key foundation of market transactions, is still undetermined. This research employed the gross domestic product (GDP), energy consumption, and electric generation data of 30 provinces from 2001 to 2015, a hybrid trend forecasting model, and a three-indicator allocation model to measure the provincial quota allocation for carbon emissions in China’s electric power sector. The conclusions drawn from the empirical analysis can be summarized as follows: (1) The carbon emission peak in China’s electric power sector will appear in 2027, and peak emissions will be 3.63 billion tons, which will surpass the total carbon emissions of the European Union (EU) and approximately equal to 2/3 of the United States of America (USA). (2) The developed provinces that are supported by traditional industries should take more responsibility for carbon mitigation. (3) Nine provinces are expected to be the buyers in the CET market. These provinces are mostly located in eastern China, and account for approximately 63.65% of China’s carbon emissions generated by the electric power sector. (4) The long-distance electric power transmission shifts the carbon emissions and then has an impact on the quotas allocation for carbon emissions. (5) The development and effective utilization of clean power generation will play a positive role for carbon mitigation in China’s electric sector.
Highlights
China’s carbon emissions have grown rapidly in recent years, from 3511.84 million tons in 2001 to9232.58 million tons in 2017, with an average annual growth rate of 6.23% [1]
To obtain the trend of C in Equation (1), a hybrid extrapolation method was employed to forecast the values of gross domestic product (GDP), P, and H, respectively
The electric power industry is the first sector which was introduced into this market, but the quota allocation scheme, as the key foundation of market transactions, is still undetermined
Summary
China’s carbon emissions have grown rapidly in recent years, from 3511.84 million tons in 2001 to9232.58 million tons in 2017, with an average annual growth rate of 6.23% [1]. China’s carbon emissions have grown rapidly in recent years, from 3511.84 million tons in 2001 to. China surpassed the United States of America (USA) in 2006 to be the largest CO2 emitter in the world. China’s global CO2 emission share is as high as 27.61%, much larger than the second (USA, 15.21%) and the third (India, 7.01%) largest emitters [1]. China has always maintained it will control its carbon emissions according to responsibility and capability. To cooperate with the international community to mitigate the global climate change, China pledged to achieve its peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and to make every possible effort to peak earlier in its INDCs (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) to the Paris
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