Quo Vadis, Europa? Five Paths, their Plausibility and Impact

Adrienne Héritier

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3836533

Abstract

The article discusses the plausibility of five different paths of institutional development of the European Union: deepening integration towards a federal state, a differentiated and flexible union, covert integration, a segmented political order and disintegration/dissolution Systematically varying either the preferences of the main actors or the macro conditions, i.e. decision-making rules, and external shocks, it discusses the plausibility of these paths and their overall effects on the European polity.

Highlights

In recent years, the European Union (EU) has been faced with critical developments, such as the financial crisis and Eurozone crisis, the migration crisis, the pandemic crisis of Covit 19 and the resulting economic crisis
They differ as regards their explicit goal orientation and planned redesigning of institutional arrangements in the case of a political union/harmonization, differentiated integration, segmented orders, and dissolution as opposed to being an endogenous process emerging from a bargaining process in the context of vague institutional and policy rules as in the case of covert integration and disintegration
I will argue that the plausibility of the respective path being used depends on the micro side (i) on the preferences of the most important formal decision-makers, that is member states and European institutions, and their preferences over a specific path of development; (ii) on the macro side, it depends on an important factor of the environment, that is the decision-making rule to be applied when deciding about the future institutional shape of the polity, that is unanimity rule, qualified majority voting (‘QMV’), simple majority rule, the use of referenda in member states and the recourse to court rulings

Summary

Introduction*

The European Union (EU) has been faced with critical developments, such as the financial crisis and Eurozone crisis, the migration crisis, the pandemic crisis of Covit 19 and the resulting economic crisis. I will argue that the plausibility of the respective path being used depends on the micro side (i) on the preferences of the most important formal decision-makers, that is member states and European institutions, and their preferences over a specific path of development; (ii) on the macro side, it depends on an important factor of the environment, that is the decision-making rule to be applied when deciding about the future institutional shape of the polity, that is unanimity rule, qualified majority voting (‘QMV’), simple majority rule, the use of referenda in member states and the recourse to court rulings Another macro factor, external shocks, such as the financial and economic crisis, the migration crisis; and the pandemic crisis are assumed to be reflected in the respective preferences of the relevant decision-makers for a political union and harmonization; differentiated integration; covert integration; segmented orders, dissolution, and. Building on strategic interaction analysis and this literature, this article will first ask: what is the plausibility that steps towards a European federal union will materialise in the short to mid-term period?

Path One: A European Federal State

Path Two: A Differentiated Union

Path Three

Conclusion