Abstract
Abstract Based on strategic interaction analysis, the chapter assesses the plausibility of the future paths of development of the European Union: a federal state, a differentiated and flexible union, covert integration, or disintegration. Systematically varying either the preferences of the main actors or the macro decision-making rules and external shocks/crises, the analysis comes to the conclusion that a differentiated and flexible union and covert integration are the most likely paths of development. The chapter discusses implications of specific scenarios, such as a possible popular backlash against ‘covert integration’ and elaborates on the desirability of practical proposals of a change in the European institutional architecture.
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