Quasi-stochastic optimization model for time-based arrival scheduling considering Standard Terminal Arrival (STAR) track time and a new delay-conflict relationship

Abstract

This paper presents a quasi-stochastic mixed integer programming model to determine the optimal arrival schedule of flights in the Terminal Area (TMA). The proposed formulation addresses two key aspects of TMA operations: (i) the variability induced due to the Standard Terminal Arrival (STAR) descent procedure and (ii) the risk of merging conflicts due to scheduling delays. The variability arising from the STAR procedure is captured through a non-deterministic parameter defined as the track time. The risk of conflicts at merging points is quantified using the expected number of conflicts, estimated based on a new delay-conflict relationship. The optimization model is also extended for a multiple-runway structure. The Chennai International Airport TMA is taken as an experimental setup to validate the model. Performance assessment reveals that the observed throughput aligns with the throughput based on the optimal scheduling. Moreover, the number of conflicts is reduced by 100% after implementing the scheduling model. Research outcomes exhibit the potential to obtain practical arrival schedules with limiting controller workload. Implications of this work hint towards better stability and performance of the TMA and the overall Air Traffic Management (ATM) system.