Quantitative vs. Qualitative Outcomes: A Longitudinal Study of Risk and Ambiguity in Monetary and Medical Decision-Making.

Abstract

How do decision-makers choose between alternatives offering outcomes that are not easily quantifiable? Previous literature on decisions under uncertainty focused on alternatives with quantifiable outcomes, for example monetary lotteries. In such scenarios, decision-makers make decisions based on success chance, outcome magnitude, and individual preferences for uncertainty. It is not clear, however, how individuals construct subjective values when outcomes are not directly quantifiable. To explore how decision-makers choose when facing non-quantifiable outcomes, we focus here on medical decisions with qualitative outcomes. Specifically, we ask whether decision-makers exhibit the same attitudes towards two types of uncertainty - risk and ambiguity - across domains with quantitative and qualitative outcomes. To answer this question, we designed an online decision-making task where participants made binary choices between alternatives offering either guaranteed lower outcomes or potentially higher outcomes that are associated with some risk and ambiguity. The outcomes of choices were either different magnitudes of monetary gains or levels of improvement in a medical condition. We recruited 429 online participants and repeated the survey in two waves, which allowed us to compare the between-domain attitude consistency with within-domain consistency, over time. We found that risk and ambiguity attitudes were moderately correlated across domains. Over time, risk attitudes had slightly higher correlations compared to across domains, while in ambiguity over-time correlations were slightly weaker. These findings are consistent with the conceptualization of risk attitude as more trait-like, and ambiguity attitudes as more state-like. We discuss the implications and applicability of our novel modeling approach to broader contexts with non-quantifiable outcomes.