Quantitative simulation and verification of carbon neutralization potential upgrade law in urban agglomerations

Abstract

The formation and development of urban agglomerations are frequently accompanied by the enhancement of regional carbon neutrality potential. The specific performance demonstrated that the carbon neutrality potential of urban agglomerations exhibited a wavy upward tendency over time due to the agglomeration of production elements, industrial transformation, and the evolution of a joint game among cities. To begin with, this paper analyzes and models the fundamental principles of the evolution law of carbon neutrality potential of urban agglomerations, as well as the geometric expression of their evolution. Afterward, an evaluation index system for urban agglomeration carbon neutrality potential is constructed in this paper, and the entropy weight method is employed to calculate the carbon neutrality potential of each city within the agglomeration as well as Chinese urban agglomerations as a whole. Following this, a global spatial analysis of the carbon neutrality potential of various urban agglomerations and cities within agglomerations is conducted using Arc GIS10.8, and a method for calculating the joint intensity and threshold value of the carbon neutrality potential of urban agglomerations is developed. As a last stage, the MATLAB simulation verification approach is utilized to verify the evolution law of carbon neutrality potential and to explore the sustainable development path of carbon neutrality for Chinese urban agglomerations. The conclusions of this research indicate: (1) The spatial and temporal pattern of carbon neutrality potential of Chinese urban agglomerations is unbalanced; (2) By constructing a joint strength model, this study calculates the joint intensity and joint threshold value of the carbon neutral potential of Chinese urban agglomerations;(3) The evolution curve of the carbon neutrality potential of Chinese urban agglomerations essentially exhibits a wavy upward pattern that varies with time and urban joint development.