Quantitative risk assessment of developing salmonellosis through consumption of beef in Lusaka Province, Zambia

Abstract

Based on the Codex Alimentarious framework, this study quantitatively assessed the risk of developing salmonellosis through consumption of beef in Lusaka Province of Zambia. Data used to achieve this objective were obtained from reviews of scientific literature, Government reports, and survey results from a questionnaire that was administered to consumers to address information gaps from secondary data. The Swift Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (sQMRA) model was used to analyse the data. The study was driven by a lack of empircally-based risk estimation despite a number of reported cases of salmonellosis in humans.A typology of consumers including all age groups was developed based on their beef consumption habits, distinguishing between those with low home consumption, those with medium levels of home consumption, and those with high levels through restaurant consumption. This study shows that the risk of developing salmonellosis in this population, from consuming beef, was generally low. At ID50 of 9.61 × 103 cfu/g and a retail contamination concentration of 12 cfu/g, the risk of developing salmonellosis through the consumption of beef prepared by consumers with low and medium levels of beef consumption was estimated at 0.06% and 0.08%, respectively, while the risk associated with restaurant consumption was estimated at 0.16% per year.The study concludes that the risk of developing salmonellosis among residents in Lusaka province, as a result of beef consumption, was generally low, mainly due to the methods used for food preparation. Further work is required to broaden the scope of the study and also undertake microbiological evaluation of ready-to-eat beef from both the household and restaurant risk exposure pathways.