Quantitative research on stress failure risk assessment for girth welds with unequal wall thickness of the X80 pipeline under lateral load

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The cumulative length of the X80 steel pipeline extends to 17,000 km, with a predominant portion traversing mountainous terrains characterized by intricate geological formations. Recurrent geological hazards significantly impede the safe operation of oil and gas pipelines. Landslides can induce substantial axial forces on steel pipelines, significantly increasing the risk of pipeline failure. Moreover, as a result of sudden changes in mechanical structure, the pipeline's unequal wall thickness leads to local stress concentration, making it more vulnerable to external loads than the steel pipeline itself. Therefore, to analyze the mechanical response of steel pipelines under different working conditions, we establish a smooth particle hydrodynamics, finite element transverse landslide pipeline model for girth welds with unequal wall thickness and investigate a tearing accident caused by a lateral landslide in a section of the large-diameter natural gas pipeline. The landslide volume is found to be the main controlling factor for the failure of pipeline circumferential welds. According to the genetic algorithm backpropagation neural network, the von Mises stress of the most dangerous section of the pipeline is calculated based on pipeline and landslide parameters, and the error is 11.67 %. According to the API RP 581–2016 Risk-Based Inspection Methodology, a failure risk assessment matrix is established using the pipeline statute as an evaluation indicator to evaluate the landslide risk to pipelines in different regions. A variable-wall-thickness girth weld on the ZG pipeline was selected for application. This method has good applicability for evaluating the failure risk of circumferential welds with wall thicknesses of 12.8/15.3 mm under the action of small landslides.