ANALYSIS OF STATISTICS OF ACCIDENTS AND FAILURES OF THE MASTAKH - BERGE - YAKUTSK MAIN GAS PIPELINE

Abstract

The problem of analyzing the causes of accidents and failure occurrences, risk assessment and prediction of critical changes of the complex technical systems state is among the most relevant areas of fundamental and applied research, serious attention is paid to this problem. Operation of oil and gas pipelines laid in the cryolithozone conditions is carried out in extremely contrasting conditions and natural environments with the active occurrence of complex climatic and geological processes interacting with the pipeline. A number of works are devoted to data analysis and classification of the causes of accidents and failure occurrences during operation of the gas pipeline «Srednevilyuyskoye Gas Condensate Field (SVGKM) - Mastakh - Berge - Yakutsk». The paper provides a statistical analysis of the causes leading to accidents and failures on the linear part of the main gas pipeline. Data on accidents and failure occurrences of the Mastakh - Berge - Yakutsk gas pipeline are collected, analyzed and entered into the geographic information database. This paper presents a statistical analysis of the causes of accidents and failure occurrences on the linear part of the main gas pipeline. The results of studies of emergency situations show that the combined effect of several factors leads to the destruction of the pipe. For each group of causes, the contribution to the total number of accidents (share of all cases), the distribution of damage for each emergency from this group of causes was calculated. Using the Pareto diagram, a set of reasons that lead to the greatest losses of gas is determined. The dependence of the accident rate on the development of hazardous geological processes in the area and the service life of gas pipelines was considered. The study of statistical data in this work allowed to outline the contribution of various factors to the accident rate of pipelines. Emergency situations caused by the loss of stability in geocryological changes of soils constitute a sufficient percentage of the total number of accidents, which leads to the feasibility of the organization of geotechnical monitoring of the natural and technical system, which allows to detect the initial stages of activation of dangerous geological processes and predict the occurrence of accidents. To solve the problems of monitoring and ensuring the safe operation of main gas pipeline, it is necessary to create a geoinformation database of the distribution of natural and man-made sources of danger. As the initial information for the formation of the database, the materials of remote sensing of the earth, data of ground survey and special works, statistical and natural resource information are used. This kind of data is necessary when ranking sections of the main gas pipeline according to the degree of danger and carrying out preventive measures, such as drainage, installation of thermal stabilizers and other protection measures.