Quantitative prediction of ultra-deep tight sandstone fractures based on the theory of minimum energy dissipation

Abstract

Structural fractures are key factors that influence natural gas migration and accumulation within ultra-deep tight reservoirs. To obtain a quantitative forecast of the development and distribution of reservoir fractures in the Keshen gas reservoir, we analyzed the characteristics of the region's structural evolution and paleo-tectonic stress field settings. A reasonable geological model of the research area was built based on an interpretation of the geological structure, a test for rock mechanics, and an experiment on acoustic emission. Thereafter, a 3-D paleo-tectonic stress field during the mid-late Himalayan movement was simulated using the finite element method. By introducing the principle of minimum energy dissipation, which to our knowledge, was done for the first time in the field, mechanical constitutive models, rock failure criteria, and fracture parameter calculation models were derived and used to determine the quantitative development of fractures and predict zones prone to fracture development. The fracture distribution in the ultra-deep Keshen gas reservoir is mainly controlled by folds, buried depth, faults, and lithology. Interestingly, even in the strong tectonic compression movement, the stress field was not continuously transmitted forward but showed fluctuation or cyclicity, indicating that fractures might have occurred at each time stage. The predicted areas with developed fractures were consistent with wells having high fracture linear density (i.e., measured results) and in locations with high-producing gas wells. We believe that the novel method in this study can be of great significance to fracture research in other ultra-deep petroliferous basins.