Abstract
In order to effectively deal with the uncertainty between evaluation samples and evaluation criteria, and quantitatively identify the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) and its obstacle factors in the Yellow River irrigation district, a calculation method of dynamic difference degree coefficient varying with evaluation sample was proposed, and then an evaluation and diagnosis model of WRCC was established. The results applied to the Dagong irrigation district showed that the overall WRCC of five counties in the irrigation district were improved from 2010 to 2017, especially since 2013. The improvement magnitudes of Changyuan County, Fengqiu County, and Hua County were significantly higher than those of Xun County and Neihuang County. In 2017, Fengqiu County, Changyuan County, Hua County, Xun County, and Neihuang County were in water resources critical overloaded status, and the connection number values were 0.231, 0.163, 0.120, −0.293, and −0.331, respectively, which is consistent with the fact that their distances become farther from the main stream of the Yellow River. In addition, the utilization ratio of water resources, available water resources amount per capita, GDP per capita, and water deficient ratio in each county belonged to the middle or strong obstacle index over a long period of time. They were the crucial obstacle factors of WRCC in the Dagong irrigation district, as well as the core and difficult points of water resources management. In some counties, the effective irrigation area ratio, effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water, and water consumption ratio of the ecological environment gradually developed from strong obstacle to weak or strong promotion index. These were important reasons for the improvement of their carrying situation, reflecting their control of agricultural and ecological water consumption. In short, the results of the case study suggest that the model established in this study is conducive to the identification of water resources’ carrying status and its key obstacle factors in the Yellow River irrigation district, and can be applied to the evaluation and regulation of resources and environment carrying capacity.
Highlights
The Yellow River irrigation district plays a key role in national food security and regional water security in China (Ren et al, 2018; Xiong et al, 2021; Yin et al, 2021)
In order to deal with the uncertainty between evaluation samples and evaluation criteria, a connection number model of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) evaluation was established
Taking account of the information carried by sample data, a calculation method of dynamic difference degree coefficient varying with the actual evaluation sample was proposed
Summary
The Yellow River irrigation district plays a key role in national food security and regional water security in China (Ren et al, 2018; Xiong et al, 2021; Yin et al, 2021). Accurate evaluation and diagnosis of obstacle factors for WRCC in the Yellow River irrigation district are of great significance to ensure the coordinated development of water resources, the social economy, and the ecological environment (Pereira et al, 2007; Zhang X. et al, 2020; Jin et al, 2021). Zhao et al (2021) established an evaluation and influencing factor analysis model of WRCC based on the theoretical framework of pressure support, damage recovery, and recession promotion. Previous studies on WRCC evaluation have mostly focused on cities or regions, while those focusing on irrigation districts are scarce (Kang et al, 2019; Zhang et al, 2019; He et al, 2021). It is urgent to establish an effective evaluation and diagnosis model, as well as accurately identify the level and obstacle factors of WRCC in the Yellow River irrigation district
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