Abstract
High safety standards of operators and regulators for dams in Switzerland require periodic assessments of risk mitigation measures at dams. Therefore, risk assessments need to include the estimation of life loss (LL) due to a potential dam break. This study demonstrated the benefits of applying the HEC-LIFESim software for modelling LL due to the instantaneous break of a hypothetical dam in Switzerland. HEC-LIFESim overcomes limitations of empirical methods by modelling evacuation and warning processes. Furthermore, for credible LL estimates, metamodelling was used to quantify uncertainty in model parameters. Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) was applied to approximate the LL model of HEC-LIFESim using only 550 runs. Uncertainty in the model inputs was propagated through the metamodel to quantify uncertainty in the LL estimates. Finally, a global sensitivity analysis was performed by calculating Sobol’ and Borgonovo indices. The results demonstrate that the three-parameter population in a locality within all considered localities, fatality rate in the chance zone, and warning issuance delay contributed most to the variability of the LL estimates. The application of the proposed methodology can support risk management by providing detailed and accurate risk measures and helping in prioritizing safety measures to be considered and implemented.
Highlights
IntroductionPublisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations
Based on expert opinion and studies conducted in the past (Table S5 in ESI), several model input parameters were selected in this study
This study developed a generic framework for uncertainty quantification in the dambreak life loss (LL) estimates based on the use of HEC-LIFESim and a metamodelling approach
Summary
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. The estimation of life loss (LL) from a potential dam failure is an important part of dam risk analysis [1]. LL estimates can be applied as a risk measure to assess if the potential risk posed by the dam exceeds the acceptable limits set by authorities [2]. LL estimates can be used to identify dam failure scenarios and factors that may cause severe consequences and, with this knowledge, support risk-based decision-making procedures for dam safety purposes [3]. LL estimates can help to evaluate a group of dams within a portfolio and identify those dams that need the most attention, e.g., structural modifications [4]
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