Quantitative assessment of the variations in monthly precipitation trends induced by the impact of three gorges dam.

Abstract

There are many studies that have examined the impact of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) on changes in meteorological data, and most of them concluded that the TGD significantly reduced precipitation without taking into account the negative trends that had already existed before the impoundment. In this study, the investigation focused on the monthly precipitation data, and the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend analysis was conducted to show that the TGD had little effect on the trends of the precipitation data. Monthly data (1980-2018) from 19 stations upstream and downstream of the TGD and 5 stations located far from the main river were extracted. The analysis and results showed that although the linear long-term (1980-2018) precipitation trend upstream of the TGD was downward, the MK trend analysis showed that the precipitation trends became upward after impoundment. This situation existed even for station data located outside the region. Also, the analysis of monthly trends in different seasons showed that in spring and winter, there was only a very weak downward trend in monthly precipitation, while in summer and autumn, the trends were upward with steeper slopes. Following the upward trends of the monthly precipitation, the TGD generally positively intensified the monthly precipitation trends upstream and downstream of the dam, with the exception of a few months when total precipitation amounts were consistently low. In contrast to the trend analysis, which showed small and insignificant variations in precipitation data, the 12-month SPEI analysis showed a significant deterioration (about 20%) in the wetness index after impoundment both upstream and downstream of the TGD, while this situation did not occur outside the region. Thus, the TGD has extended dry periods both upstream and downstream of the dam over the past two decades.