Abstract
Hydrate blockage significantly challenges flow assurance during subsea oil and gas operations. This paper presented a novel probabilistic method to quantitatively evaluate hydrate blockage risk based on reliability theory. The limit state equation of hydrate blockage involving hydrate volume fraction was established, after which Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used to determine the uncertain parameter samples. Moreover, the calculation efficiency was enhanced using the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) method, involving physical field reconstruction based on OLGA-CSMHyK simulation. Furthermore, this paper considered the uncertainty of pipeline operating parameters, such as the pipeline inlet temperature ( T ), outlet pressure ( P ), mass flow rate production reduction ( Q ), heat transfer coefficient ( K ), and initial droplet diameter ( D p ). This method was used to predict the probability of hydrate blockage at any time and at any position of the multiphase pipeline. Three risk levels were defined, including hydrate formation risk, low risk of hydrate blockage, and high risk of hydrate blockage. The calculation results indicated that Q displayed a significant impact compared with the other four uncertain parameters, while the influence of topography also warranted attention. This work may provide a reference for optimizing hydrate management strategies and ensuring safe pipeline operation. • A quantitative method for assessing hydrate risk based on reliability theory. • The probabilistic analysis for three levels of hydrate blockage risk is conducted. • The uncertainties of parameters related to hydrate formation is considered. • POD coupled with LHS is applied to improve the calculation efficiency.
Published Version
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