Abstract
Drought is a water deficit state caused by large-scale climate change that cannot be avoided by a water resource management system. Water scarcity refers to the unsustainable utilization of water resources over a long time, which is the result of water management policies. However, water deficits caused by drought and water scarcity often occur simultaneously and are indistinguishable. This study proposes a model-based simulation framework that can quantitatively distinguish natural factors (drought) from human factors (water scarcity) in a hydrological system. The simulation was applied to the Zhangweinan Canal Basin, based on the runoff sequences from 1950 to 2004. The results show that the runoff curve number, soil depth, soil available water, soil evaporation compensation coefficient, base runoff α coefficient and the maximum canopy interception have the highest sensitivity to runoff, and that the calibrated and validated SWAT model can effectively simulate the runoff process in the Zhangweinan Canal Basin and similar areas. Abrupt changes in human activities in 1975 and water scarcity led to the disappearance of the summer peak runoff period in both wet and dry years. Human factors are the main reason for the change in the hydrological system in the study area; the runoff loss caused by human factors is four times that caused by natural factors according to the proposed variable threshold. This study proposes a model-based simulation framework that can help water resource managers to distinguish the effects of drought and water scarcity in water-stressed areas and adjust management accordingly.
Highlights
The field of hydrology and water resources usually exhibits very complex features; this complexity is mainly reflected in uncertainty
The core of the model-based simulation simulation framework framework in in this this study study is is the the hydrological hydrological model, model, The core of the model-based simulation framework inhydrological this study is the model, which aims tosimulate simulate theeffect effect natural factors system and to exclude the aims to the of of natural factors on on the the hydrological system andhydrological to exclude the effect which aims to simulate the effect of natural factors on the hydrological system and exclude the effect of human activities
Policy makers and resource planners generally use drought index thresholds to determine the moments at which a drought begins and ends [34,35]
Summary
The field of hydrology and water resources usually exhibits very complex features; this complexity is mainly reflected in uncertainty. Drought research has always been an important element in the field of hydrology and water resources. With the rapid development of human society in recent years, water scarcity has gradually become a research hotspot, especially in developing countries [1]. Definitions and criteria for water scarcity are not uniform internationally. Research on water scarcity is often regional (e.g., on watershed, city, or country scales), while the effects of water scarcity include impacts on the functioning of the economy and society, and on human life [6,7]
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