Quantifying the ‘Yellow Card Policy’ Effect: An Intervention Analysis of Chinese Tourist Migration to South Korea amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The focal point of this investigation is to unravel the intricate consequences of the ‘Yellow Card Policy’ enacted by South Korea on the inflow of Chinese tourists, set against the backdrop of the tumultuous global disruption instigated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Leveraging a dataset delineating monthly periods from January 2020 to May 2023 and invoking the intervention analysis method for empirical evaluation, we excavate a series of salient findings. We discern that South Korea’s “Yellow Card Policy” casts a significant negative shadow over the magnitude of Chinese tourist arrivals, with a particularly profound impact on the long-term outlook. Simultaneously, our investigation illuminates a discernible negative correlation between South Korea’s inflation rate and the influx of Chinese tourists, thereby underlining the critical influence of domestic economic health on international tourism trajectories. Conversely, we observe a distinct positive association between the China–South Korea exchange rate and the influx of Chinese tourists. This insinuates that an advantageous exchange rate can serve as a compelling economic catalyst, stimulating tourism demand by making the host country more financially appealing to potential tourists. In essence, this array of findings paints a multifaceted tableau of how policy maneuvers, economic landscapes, and global health upheavals converge to sculpt the contours of international tourism.