IMPACTS OF THE THREE TRILEMMA POLICIES ON INFLATION, GROWTH AND VOLATILITY FOR TEN SELECTED ASIAN AND PACIFIC COUNTRIES

Abstract

A more stable exchange rate benefits China, Malaysia and New Zealand due to lower inflation rates and Japan, the Philippines, New Zealand, South Korea and Thailand because of higher growth rates but produces negative results for South Korea in terms of higher inflation rates and China due to lower growth rates. More monetary independence is beneficial to Australia, Japan and Malaysia due to higher growth rates but generates adverse outcomes for China, Malaysia and South Korea because of higher inflation rates. More free capital mobility is helpful to Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, the Philippines and Singapore due to lower inflation rates or higher growth rates but yields negative outcomes for Thailand due to higher inflation rates. More exchange rate stability reduces output volatility for China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand, decreases inflation volatility for Japan and New Zealand, increases inflation volatility for South Korea and Thailand, and has no impacts on inflation or output volatility for Australia and Malaysia. More monetary independence increases inflation volatility for China and output volatility for Singapore, and has no impacts on inflation or output volatility for other countries. More free capital mobility reduces inflation volatility for China, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore and South Korea and output volatility for China, Japan, South Korea, and has no impacts on Australia, Indonesia and New Zealand. Countries are expected to select a policy mix that would reduce inflation or output volatility. Hence, the effectiveness of these policies in reducing the inflation rate, increasing the growth rate and reducing inflation or output volatility should be considered in selecting a policy mix.