Abstract
Causal loop diagrams (CLDs) based on expert or stakeholder inputs inform the structure of socio-hydrological models (SHMs). Here, we explore the sensitivity of SHMs, a category of system dynamic models that simulate human-water feedback to varying degrees of stakeholder inputs. We develop three alternative CLDs to understand the dynamics of a large multi-purpose reservoir in southern India. CLD1 is a conventional water balance-based reservoir model that simulates surface water availability in the region. CLD2 incorporates reservoir operator’s judgement and groundwater pumping. CLD3 further incorporates adaptive behavior of water users by adjusting demands in response to droughts. CLD2 and CLD3 were developed via semi-structured interviews. SHM outputs were validated via reservoir storage, groundwater levels in the command area, and ratio of surface to groundwater for farming during 2000-2013. SHM3 outperformed SHM1 and SHM2, especially in post drought period, highlighting the importance of testing different SHMs structures to better understand human-water interactions under extreme conditions.
Published Version
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