Quantifying the sensitivity of european power systems to energy scenarios and climate change projections

H.C Bloomfield,D.J Brayshaw,A Troccoli,C.M Goodess,M De Felice,L Dubus,P.E Bett,Y.-M Saint-Drenan

doi:10.1016/j.renene.2020.09.125

H.C Bloomfield, D.J Brayshaw + Show 6 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.09.125

Copy DOI

Abstract

Climate simulations consistently show an increase in European near-surface air temperature by the late 21st century, although projections for near-surface wind speeds and irradiance differ between models, and are accompanied by large natural variability. These factors make it difficult to estimate the effects of physical climate change on power system planning. Here, the impact of climate change on future European power systems is estimated.We show for the first time how a set of divergent future power system scenarios lead to marked differences in Europe’s total energy balance (demand-net-renewable supply) by 2050, which dominate over the uncertainty associated with climate change (∼50% and ∼5% respectively). However, within any given power system scenario, national power systems may be subject to considerable impacts from climate change, particularly for seasonal differences between renewable resources (e.g., wind power may be impacted by ∼20% or more). There is little agreement between climate models in terms of the spatio-temporal pattern of these impacts, and even in the direction of change for wind and solar. More thorough consideration of climate uncertainty is therefore needed, as it is likely to be of great importance for robust future power system planning and design.

Highlights

To meet carbon reduction targets, energy systems across the globe are changing their power systems rapidly to incorporate lowcarbon generation
- Firstly, we investigate the impact of climate change, within a chosen power system scenario, on relevant surface climate indicators and weather-dependent power-system components: i.e., the extent to which a given future power system scenario is affected by climate change and uncertainty
There is an increase in 2 m temperatures in the future period (2045e2065 compared to 1980e2000), which is exacerbated in the higher RCP scenario, and is clearly seen in all seasons (Fig. 3a)

Summary

Introduction

To meet carbon reduction targets, energy systems across the globe are changing their power systems rapidly to incorporate lowcarbon generation. Large changes in electricity demand are expected due to electrification of heating and transport, economic development, and changes in thermal comfort requirements [2,3]. These changes lead to a growing sensitivity of supply and demand to meteorological conditions. This large increase in weather sensitivity is occurring at a system to climate is likely to increase significantly, given the renewable capacity increases planned to meet the 1.5-2 degree Paris agreement targets and multiple countries’ aims for “net-zero” emissions by 2050 For solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation potential there is a inconsistent climate change response. [27] suggest a reduction in solar PV potential across all of Europe, with largest reductions over Scandinavia, whereas other studies find that solar PV potential generally increases in Central-Southern Europe and decreases in Northern Europe, with an overall increase across Europe [28,29]

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion