Quantifying the Resilience of the U.S. Domestic Aviation Network During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Aleksandar Bauranov,Steven Parks,Jasenka Rakas,Xuan Jiang,Marta C González

doi:10.3389/fbuil.2021.642295

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on the United States air transportation network between March and August 2020. Despite dramatic reductions in flight and passenger volumes, the network remained robust and resilient against perturbation. Although 24% of airports closed, the reduction in network efficiency was only 5.1%, which means airlines continued to serve most destinations. A deeper analysis of airport closures reveals that 1) small peripheral airports were the most likely to be closed; 2) socio-economic and epidemiological factors characterizing the airport’s region such as income, income inequality, political leaning, and the number of observed COVID cases were not predictive of airport closure. Finally, we show that high network robustness has a downside: although emissions from United States air traffic in 2020 fell by 37.4% compared to 2019, mostly due to the drop in the number of flights, emissions per passenger doubled in the period April to August 2020 and increased eightfold in the week of April 5–11. This rise indicates inefficient use of resources by airlines.

Highlights

The combined effects of social distancing, quarantining, travel restrictions, and apprehension to fly have led to a sharp decline in revenue, flight volume, and passenger-miles traveled in the United States air transportation network in 2020
Our results indicate that the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act distributed to airports through FAA grants is the second-best predictor of airport closure; the importance of FAA Grants in the model is dwarfed by the best predictor of closure–Number of Flights
This paper analyzes the network characteristics of the United States domestic air transportation system as they have evolved during the COVID-19 pandemic

Summary

Introduction

The combined effects of social distancing, quarantining, travel restrictions, and apprehension to fly have led to a sharp decline in revenue, flight volume, and passenger-miles traveled in the United States air transportation network in 2020. (2020) reported that by the end of the first quarter of 2020, the global year-over-year reduction in the supply and demand for commercial air travel was among the largest declines on record. The week ending Saturday, April 25 experienced the lowest number of domestic flights since the beginning of the pandemic. Approximately 400 United States airports that offer commercial flights have experienced at least short-term closure during the crisis up until the study’s termination. Most of these are small airports that typically operate fewer than 100 flights per week (Figure 1B)

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