Abstract
Making the distinction between drought and water scarcity is not trivial, because they often occur simultaneously. In this study, we used Copulas to quantify the relationship between drought and water scarcity. Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Metropolitan Areas (BTHMA) was chosen as the study area. Standard Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and water exploitation index plus (WEI+) was chosen to represent metrological drought and water scarcity. Inverse Distance Weighted method was used for spatial analysis of SPEI and WEI+, and Archimedean Copula was used to establish two-dimensional joint probability distribution of SPEI and WEI+. The results are as follows: (1) The southern part of the study area was wetter. The middle part was drier, with moderate drought happened for most times. (2) WEI+ of Beijing and Tianjin showed significant decreasing trends from 2000 to 2015, while WEI+ of Hebei Province did not, which indicated that Hebei Province is facing much severer water scarcity situation than Beijing and Tianjin. (3) Gumbel copula was the best-fitting model to establish the joint probability distribution of SPEI and WEI+. The condition probability provided a probability distribution of water scarcity under different drought conditions, which can provide technical support for government managers during policy making.
Highlights
Water represents an essential element for the life of all who inhabit our planet [1]
The Standard Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) calculated from each station were interpolated to the study domain using Inverse Distance Weighted method (IDW) and the three typical years
As for Hebei Province, Water Exploitation Index (WEI)+ stays very stable with an average value of 93.05%, much higher than the threshold 40%
Summary
Water represents an essential element for the life of all who inhabit our planet [1]. Drought and water scarcity are two phenomena closely related to water quantity issues, and usually have influences on the society. Drought is defined as a natural temporary imbalance in water availability, which may be related to persistently lower-than-average precipitation [2]. Durations and severities, and their occurrence is difficult to predict. Water scarcity is defined as the relative shortage of water in a water supply system which can be caused by drought or by human actions [3]. This is an imbalance of water supply and demand [4].
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