Abstract
Background: Despite a wide range of contraceptive methods, unmet need persists. New contraceptive technologies (CTs) have the potential to improve uptake and continuation. CT development has a long-time horizon; products will be introduced into markets that look very different than today. Identifying viable investments requires an understanding of these future markets. For this work the 2040 potential contraceptive market is described utilizing seven market segments based on marital status, fertility preferences, and patterns of sexual activity outside of marriage. Methods: Market size estimates are developed by country for all countries in the world for a current market (2020) and a future market (2040). United Nation's (UN) population projections of the number of women of reproductive age (WRA) form the basis of this work. WRA are then segmented into market segments based on marital status, fertility intentions, and patterns of sexual activity outside of marriage. Each segment is further subdivided by contraceptive use versus non-use. Segmentation draws from UN projections, household surveys, census data, and modeling techniques developed for this work. Results: The largest market increases will be seen in Africa; most notably among the segment of married women wanting no more children. By contrast, Asia will see declines across all three married segments, coupled with increases among sexually active unmarried segments. Levels of contraceptive use are projected to vary widely by segment, with differential patters across regions. Conclusions: This analysis projects the impact of demographic changes, evolving fertility preferences, shifts in sexual activity outside of marriage and increased utilization of contraceptives in shaping the contraceptive market of 2040. Results show that there is not one global market, but distinct markets that vary in size and shape across the world. This diversity suggests that a range of different new CTs could have potential for uptake.
Highlights
Despite the existence of a wide range of contraceptive methods, more than 200 million women across developing countries who do not want to become pregnant are not using modern contraceptives (Guttmacher, 2017)
The share of women of reproductive age who are married or in union is projected to decline from 65% in 2020 to 59% in 2040
The results presented in this paper—women of reproductive age (WRA), users, and non-users by segment—provide the starting point for understanding the future market for a new contraceptive technologies (CTs)
Summary
Despite the existence of a wide range of contraceptive methods, more than 200 million women across developing countries who do not want to become pregnant are not using modern contraceptives (Guttmacher, 2017). Products in the early discovery stage or not yet in the development pipeline would likely not be available at scale until at least 2040 This long-time horizon means that the markets into which these products will be introduced will likely look much different than today, with user needs and preferences evolving in the face of demographic changes coupled with changes in marriage patterns, sexual activity and fertility preferences. For this work the 2040 potential contraceptive market is described utilizing seven market segments based on marital status, fertility preferences, and patterns of sexual activity outside of marriage. Results show that there is not one global market, but distinct markets that vary in size and shape across the world This diversity suggests that a range of different new CTs could have potential for uptake
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