Quantifying the impact of water availability on China's energy system under uncertainties: A perceptive of energy-water nexus

Abstract

Energy and water are interdependent and interwoven, forming energy-water nexus. The chronic of water shortage in China can make a negative impact on energy system and further hinder the socioeconomic sustainable development. The coal-dominated energy structure consumes a large amount of water, which further intensities the dilemma between increasing energy demand and shrinking water resources. In this study, a China's non-deterministic energy-water nexus (CNEWN) model is established through incorporating techniques of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and interval-parameter programming (IPP). The CNEWN model is capable of simulating probability distributions of water availability, reflecting uncertainties derived from economic development and technology choice, and providing optimal scheme for China's energy system management over a long-term (2021–2050) horizon. Multiple scenarios are set up to quantify the impact of water availability on the national-scale energy system and sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the influence of uncertain parameters on modeling outputs. Results indicate that a variety of uncertainties existed in the energy system's parameters can affect the modeling outputs and the making decisions. Strict water availability constraints can stimulate the development of renewable energies and promote the transition of energy structure to clean and low-carbon pattern. Results also reveal that water scarcity can have a significant influence on the national energy system assocaited with water resources utilization, pollutant and carbon dioxide emissions, as well as system cost. The results provide a solid scientific basis for coordinately optimizing energy and water as well as effectively supporting the sustainable development of national energy system.