Quantifying the Cost of Drone-Related Threats in New Zealand

Abstract

This article provides initial estimates of the most significant threats from drones in New Zealand. An economic approach is adopted with risks expressed as an expected annual cost, which is consistent with the adoption of a cost-benefit frame-work for policy development. It will be demonstrated that the expected annual cost of drone misuse are greater than that of a mass shooting, with the risks in the prison system alone exceeding the expected cost of a mass shooting. The expected annual cost of a terror attack exceeds that of the risks to the aviation industry. However current government proposals for registration of drones and licensing of pilots will do little to address the potential threats, which generally – though not exclusively – arise from individuals who have no intention of complying with the law. Indeed, it seems unlikely that the Ministry of Transport’s proposed policies will be effective in countering the most significant threats – those policies are likely to cost more than the risk that they might avert. Consequently there is a need to develop a strategy for countering the misuse of drones by those engaged in illegal activities.