Quantifying the Causal Effect of Individual Mobility on Health Status in Urban Space

Abstract

How does individual mobility in the urban environment impact their health status? Previous works have explored the correlation between human mobility behaviour and individual health, yet the study on the underlying causal effect is woefully inadequate. However, the correlation analysis can sometimes be bewildering because of the confounding effects. For example, older people visit park more often but have worse health status than younger people. The common associations with age will lead to a counter-intuitive negative correlation between park visits and health status. Obtaining causal effects from confounded observations remains a challenge. In this paper, we construct a causal framework based on propensity score matching on multi-level treatment to eliminate the bias brought by confounding effects and estimate the total treatment effects of mobility behaviours on health status. We demonstrate that the matching procedure approximates a de-confounded randomized experiment where confounding variables are balanced substantially. The analysis on the directions of estimated causal effects reveals that fewer neighbouring tobacco shops and frequent visits to sports facilities are related with higher risk in health status, which differs from their correlation directions. Physical mobility behaviours and environment features have more significant estimated effects on health status than contextual mobility behaviours. Moreover, we embed our causal analysis framework in health prediction models to filter out features with superficial correlation but insignificant effects that might lead to over-fitting. This strategy achieves better model robustness with more features filtered out than L1-regularization. Our findings shed light on individual healthy lifestyle and mobility-related health policymaking.