Quantifying power system flexibility for the energy transition in Colombia

Abstract

Multiple factors drive the energy transition toward power systems based on renewable energies. The use of renewable energies brings new challenges for operators since they are difficult to predict. Power system flexibility is the ability to handle differences between supply and load and can be quantified to measure the effects of renewable energies on power systems. Colombia expects to triple the current solar and wind power capacity by 2030; therefore, it is essential to evaluate the flexibility of the Colombian power. This paper presents a pioneering analysis in the local context, filling a local research gap, by quantifying the flexibility requirements of the Colombian power system based on changes in the net load and its ramps and considering wind and solar generation scenarios and load projections. This analysis has not been conducted locally and can be used by policymakers to determine the country’s energy transition path. The results show that renewable power impacts conventional generators. Hydro generation handles high ramp deviations well under normal conditions but faces challenges during low hydrology periods. The Colombian power system is projected to be flexible in 2030 but less so in 2050 due to overproduction and higher net load ramps.