Quantifying peak heat demand in neighbourhoods: A UBEM approach and its implications for residential heating electrification in the UK—A case study of Newcastle upon Tyne

Abstract

Developing Urban Building Energy Models (UBEM) to manage heat decarbonisation at the neighbourhood level is both crucial and challenging. Our study addresses key research challenges: quantifying peak heat energy demand and developing reliable and replicable urban energy demand microsimulations. We applied our UBEM approach to a case study area of 228 houses served by the Ridgeway New Low Voltage (LV) electrical substation in Newcastle upon Tyne, to estimate the difference between existing peak heat and electricity demand at this scale. Results show that peak heat demand is 5 to 14 times greater than peak electricity demand, significantly exceeding estimates from national studies. Furthermore, our work follows a comprehensive validation framework, comparing our simulation results against all relevant and available UK datasets. This comparison demonstrates that our model is an overall good fit at the declared Level of Detail. However, our paper identifies significant challenges, particularly in validation, that need to be addressed to improve the reliability and usability of future UBEMs. Finally, we reflect on all our findings and make policy recommendations, as we believe addressing the issues raised in this paper is vital for enabling area-based planning of residential heating electrification, particularly in the UK.