Abstract
The objective of this research is to introduce a novel framework to quantify the risk of the reservoir system outside the design envelope, taking into account the risks related to flood-protection and hydro-energy generation under unfavourable reservoir element conditions (system element failures) and hazardous situations within the environment (flood event). To analyze water system behavior in adverse conditions, a system analysis approach is used, which is founded upon the system dynamics model with a causal loop. The capability of the system in performing the intended functionality can be quantified using the traditional static measures like reliability, resilience and vulnerability, or dynamic resilience. In this paper, a novel method for the assessment of a multi-parameter dynamic resilience is introduced. The multi-parameter dynamic resilience envelops the hydropower and flood-protection resilience, as two opposing demands in the reservoir operation regime. A case study of a Pirot reservoir, in the Republic of Serbia, is used. To estimate the multi -parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system, a hydrological model, and a system dynamic simulation model with an inner control loop, is developed. The inner control loop provides the relation between the hydropower generation and flood-protection. The hydrological model is calibrated and generated climate inputs are used to simulate the long-term flow sequences. The most severe flood event period is extracted to be used as the input for the system dynamics simulations. The system performance for five different scenarios with various multi failure events (e.g., generator failure, segment gate failure on the spillway, leakage from reservoir and water supply tunnel failure due to earthquake) are presented using the novel concept of the explicit modeling of the component failures through element functionality indicators. Based on the outputs from the system dynamics model, system performance is determined and, later, hydropower and flood protection resilience. Then, multi-parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system is estimated and compared with the traditional static measures (reliability). Discrepancy between the drop between multi-parameter resilience (from 0.851 to 0.935) and reliability (from 0.993 to 1) shows that static measure underestimates the risk to the water system. Thus, the results from this research show that multi-parameter dynamic resilience, as an indicator, can provide additional insight compared to the traditional static measures, leading to identification of the vulnerable elements of a complex reservoir system. Additionally, it is shown that the proposed explicit modeling of system components failure can be used to reflect the drop of the overall system functionality.
Highlights
Multipurpose reservoirs have an important role in responding to natural disasters by controlling the runoff generated on a larger watershed scale [1]
The normalized form of a multi-parameter dynamic resilience can be compared with the static risk measures obtained for the Pirot reservoir system, as the same models and failure scenarios are used for risk assessment
This study proposes a new concept of multi-parameter dynamic resilience for a complex reservoir system providing the link between the reservoir system and its environment using an inner control loop
Summary
Multipurpose reservoirs have an important role in responding to natural disasters by controlling the runoff generated on a larger watershed scale [1]. The services provided by such reservoir systems are multi-fold, providing water supply, flood and drought management, electricity generation, environmental services and recreational activities [2]. Their roles are especially highlighted under changing climate increasing the pressure and expectations on reservoir systems. The reservoir system components are commonly designed and operated within the design envelope under present climate conditions. Such approach takes into account natural hazards (e.g., floods) as a single event rather than multi-events with a low probability of occurrence [3,4]. In respect to the system component ageing process and rapid changes in the environment, multipurpose reservoir systems designed under the present climate do not necessarily guarantee an adequate level of service and safety [4]
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