A System Dynamic Model for the Environmental Performance Index of Malaysia

Abstract

The Third Principle which is pertaining to the right to development in Agenda 21 of the Rio Declaration or Earth Summit asserts that it must be fulfilled so that development must be sustainable which has been defined as development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own need. Among the various models of environmental sustainability comparative studies was the Environmental Performance Index (EPI) model. Malaysia was ranked 54 recording a score of 65 and ranked 10 among the Asia and Pacific Countries behind two ASEAN countries: Singapore and Philippines. The environmental indicators from 2010 EPI was therefore used to develop the System Dynamics Simulation Model to provide the framework and procedure for qualitative and quantitative description, exploration and analysis of the systems in terms of their processes, information boundaries and strategies, facilitating quantitative simulation modeling for policy evaluation and predictions pertinent to sustainability. The System Dynamic Simulation Model developed for the EPI of Malaysia changed the static presentation to a dynamic scenario. Two very important components were considered: the contribution and the impact of population and the industrial activities indicated as the Industrial Productivity Index. The simulated EPI of 66.51 was shown to differ slightly from the EPI 2010 of 65 attributed to the inclusion of the population and the industrial production factors in the system dynamic model, in which the later study did not compute the EPI with respect to the two factors. Thus, the System Dynamic Simulation Model developed has shown to be reliable and be used for any country to simulate EPI for future trends.