Quantifying ENSO and IOD impact to hotspot in Indonesia based on Heterogeneous Correlation Map (HCM)

Abstract

Land and forest fires in Indonesia have a long history. Several major land and forest fires in Indonesia such as in 2002, 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2019 were associated impacts of the ENSO and IOD phenomena. This research aims to find out how much ENSO and IOD impact to land and forest fires in Indonesia. This research used Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the Nino 3.4 index region and DMI region as indicators for ENSO and IOD, while hotspot was used as an indicator of land and forest fires in Indonesia. Heterogeneous Correlation Map (HCM) was used to describe the correlation of hotspots with ENSO variance and IOD variance on spatial patterns. The HCM obtained from Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis used to identify the variances. The result showed that anomalies SST in Nino 3.4 index region had greater correlation with hotspot in Provinces of South Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, and Central Kalimantan than those of other regions in Indonesia. Anomalies SST in DMI region had greater correlation with hotspot in Provinces of Lampung, South Sumatera, West Kalimantan, South Kalimantan and Central Kalimantan, than those of other regions in Indonesia. Temporal analysis showed that the largest variance of hotspot in Indonesia mostly in the mid of the year.