Quantifying Airborne Fraction Trends and the Ultimate Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 by Tracking Carbon Flows in a Simple Climate Model

Abstract

Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations have increased in the atmosphere as a direct result of human activity and are at their highest level over the last 2-3 million years, with profound impacts on the Earth system. However, the magnitude and future dynamics of land and ocean carbon sinks are not well understood; therefore, the amount of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions that remain in the atmosphere (the airborne fraction) is poorly constrained. This work aims to quantify the sources and controls of atmospheric CO2, the fate of anthropogenic CO2 over time, and the trend and robustness of the airborne fraction. We use Hector v3.0, a coupled simple climate and carbon cycle model, with the novel ability to explicitly track carbon as it flows through the Earth system. We use a priori probability distribution functions for key model parameters in a Monte Carlo analysis of 10,000 coupled carbon-climate model runs from 1750 to 2300. Results are filtered for physical realism against historical observations and CMIP6 projection data, and we calculate the relative importance of parameters controlling how much CO2 ends up in the atmosphere. Unsurprisingly, we find that anthropogenic emissions are the dominant source of near- and long-term atmospheric CO2, composing roughly 45% of the atmosphere, which is consistent with observational studies of the airborne fraction. The overwhelming majority of model runs exhibited a negative trend in the airborne fraction from 1960-2020, implying that current-day land and ocean sinks are proportionally taking up more carbon than the atmosphere. Furthermore, when looking at the destination of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions, only a quarter ends up in the atmosphere while more than half of emissions are taken up by the land sink on centennial timescales. This study evaluates the likelihood of airborne fraction trends and provides insights into the dynamics and destination over time of anthropogenic CO2 in the Earth system.