Quantification of aflatoxin risk associated with Chinese spices: Point and probability risk assessments for aflatoxin B1

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to estimate the risk of illness posed by aflatoxin B1 resulting from consumption of Chinese spices. Quantitative estimates of cancer risk from aflatoxin B1 residues were constructed based on 480 retail samples of various spices in China. The samples were comprised of pepper, chili, prickly ash, cinnamon, aniseed, fennel, curry powder, cumin and ginger. All of the samples were analyzed for aflatoxin B1 content by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The risk assessment included the variability in aflatoxin concentration in Chinese spices; the variability in spice consumption by the Chinese population as represented by surrogate data from 5 other counties or regions and the influence of Hepatitis B infection on cancer risk. The risk assessment compared three different mitigation scenarios where aflatoxin levels above different thresholds were excluded. Our results show that about 11% of the 480 Chinese spices samples tested contained detectible levels of aflatoxin, with the highest concentrations found in chili, prickly ash and pepper. The deterministic risk assessment shows that assumptions about spice consumption patterns do have an effect on estimated risk for those infected with Hepatitis B and excluding spices with higher levels of aflatoxin can reduce risk in some cases. Both probabilistic risk assessments estimated higher levels of risk when compared to the deterministic risk assessment. Aflatoxin concentration produced in this manuscript are consistent with those reported by others, and our estimates indicate that spices may contribute about 10% of all Chinese exposure to aflatoxin.