Qualitative dynamics of a vaccination model for HSV-2

Abstract

A new mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), which takes into account disease transmission by infected individuals in the quiescent state and an imperfect HSV-2 vaccine, is designed and qualitatively analysed. In the absence of vaccination, it is shown that the model has a globally asymptotically stable (GAS) disease-free equilibrium (DFE) point whenever an epidemiological threshold, known as the ‘basic reproduction number’, is less than unity. Further, this model has a unique endemic equilibrium whenever the reproduction number exceeds unity. Using a non-linear Lyapunov function, it is shown that the unique endemic equilibrium is GAS (for a special case) when the associated reproduction threshold is greater than unity. On the other hand, the model with vaccination undergoes a vaccine-induced backward bifurcation, where the stable DFE coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the reproduction threshold is less than unity. Threshold analysis of the vaccination model reveals that the use of an imperfect HSV-2 vaccine could have positive or negative population-level impact (in reducing disease burden). Simulations of the vaccination model show that an HSV-2 vaccine could lead to effective disease control or elimination if the vaccine efficacy and the fraction of susceptible individuals vaccinated at steady state are high enough (at least 80% each).